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Weatherman predicts a warm 2005

"I saw a few shots of wide, open water on Greenland's North Shore - a first for me"

JANE GEORGE

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The first photograph, taken in Montreal last July, shows a typical round sunset. In the second photo, taken in Resolute Bay last March, cold air makes the sun appear squashed. This year the sun in Resolute appeared rounder than usual, causing Wayne Davidson to predict warm weather on the horizon. (PHOTOS COURTESY OF WAYNE DAVIDSON)

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Wayne Davidson, an Environment Canada weather station operator in Resolute Bay and keen follower of the sun, is saying 2005 will be the warmest year ever.

"It is easy to state that 2005 probably (will) surpass 1998's all-time average temperature high," Davidson writes on his web site at www.eh2r.com.

Davidson's conclusion is based on his visual study of the sun and how its appearance on the horizon changes, depending on the temperature of the air. This year, the size of the sun, which appeared rounder than usual, is what tells him the summer will be warm.

"March 2005 was the third warmest month since 1880, it was during this time that I took differential refraction shots, giving much rounder, above average vertical sun disk sizes, rounder than High Arctic 2004, 2003 and 2002 equinox periods respectively," Davidson writes.

CLICK PHOTO TO ENLARGE

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Davidson said in an interview that green flashes - sparks of light seen when the sun sets - were not so numerous this year, indicating a lack of contrast between cold surface air and warm air just above.

"This means that the surface was warmer, and this convinced me that the year will be the warmest in history," he said. "Already pilots' reports are of amazing open water over the Arctic Ocean compared to previous years. I saw a few shots of wide, open water on Greenland's North Shore - a first for me."

Still, Davidson said his prediction doesn't mean that temperatures will be warmer everywhere, but rather the average world temperature will be higher.

"Making predictions is a risky business, but I am confident that my prediction will come through, because of a simple way of measuring temperature on a wide area of air. Only time will tell, but I was right on for 2003, surprised myself right again for 2004, and will be delighted if correct again this year."

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