Shoddy 'expert' risk study cited in fatal snow slide

Testimony at a coroner's inquest into the deadly New Year's avalanche at Kangiqsualujjuaq focuses on questionable findings of a 1995 report paid for by the Kativik School Board

JANE GEORGE
Nunatsiaq News

KANGIQSUALUJJUAQ — A consultant hired in 1995 by the Kativik School Board to gauge the risk of snow slides in Kangiqsualujjuaq grossly miscalculated the danger facing the hamlet's only school.

Bernard Hétu a professor at Université du Québec at Rimouski, acknowledged in testimony at a coroner's inquest this week that he and Jean-François Dubé, an outfitter, relied heavily on statistics for their conclusions and gave little consideration to the pattern of avalanches near the slope itself.

"I felt terrible," said Hétu, as the inquest entered its second week of hearings in Kangiqsualujjuaq.

Nine people died in Kangiqsualujjuaq when an avalanche ripped through the Satuumavik School gymnasium during New Year's Eve celebrations.

Hétu told the inquest that his examination of 130 avalanches in Quebec had led him to believe that a major avalanche was unlikely in Kangiqsualujjuaq.

"The hill... could not create a powerful enough avalanche," reads Hétu's report.

Hétu said that that until recently he was Quebec's sole avalanche researcher, although he is not a member of, and had in fact only recently learned of the existence of the Canadian Association of Avalanchists.

Hétu told the inquest that he has produced studies for Hydro-Québec and the Quebec government, including one on an avalanche that killed two people in Blanc Sablon in 1995.

Hétu spent three days in Kangiqsualujjuaq in late spring, 1995. During this visit he spoke with three school staff members, Mary Baron, the school's director, and two teachers, Guy Forbes and Alain Rochefort. Hétu does not speak English.

After questioning from lawyers for the coroner and families of two of the 1999 avalanche victims, details of certain elements of Hétu's report — particularly those dealing with past avalanches — seemed to differ from previous testimony from eye witnesses.

But Hétu said that he had relied on statistical models from Norway to reach his report's conclusions. He said these had never been used in Canada, as far as he knew, in studies. Hétu said that he tried to compensate for any possible inaccuracy.

Hétu, who sent his report to the Kativik School Board, never checked back to see if his recommendations had been followed up. He assumed that they had received the report because he received payment for his expenses and work.

His assessment of the risk contrasted sharply with that of a Calgary-based avalanche expert who was hired earlier this year by the Quebec government to probe the causes of the New Year's tragedy.

According to Bruce Jamieson, an engineer and former president of the Canadian Association of Avalanchists, an avalanche of equal magnitude could be expected to occur in Kangiqsualujjuaq every 30 years.

"It doesn't mean that it won't happen again for another 29 years," Jamieson told the inquest.

Based on weather records he has studied, Jamieson warned that an even larger avalanche is possible.

Jamieson also dismissed speculation that a midnight rifle salute by Canadian Rangers could have caused the deadly New Year's snowslide.

"The rifle fire one hour and forty minutes before is not a plausible trigger," said Jamieson, who pointed instead to the combination of last winter's weather and the lay of the land.

Freezing rain in early December, followed by snowfall, created layers of weak and solid snow on the hill near the school, Jamieson said. The "trigger" was a bli ard on Dec 31 that formed heavy snowdrifts on an unstable ledge behind the school.

A falling snow pack can move at 100 km an hour and is capable of crushing a building and breaking windows, Jamieson further testified.

In a recent report that Jamieson delivered to Quebec's department of public security called "Avalanche Hazard Mitigation for Kangiqsualujjuaq, Quebec," he outlined several options for protecting 20 dwellings and other buildings that lie within the hazard area.

Options include relocation of all buildings or evacuation during times of avalanche risk.

But evacuation would require a constant updates of the avalanche hazard and could also force residents to leave the community for long periods of time, Jamieson notes.

Using explosives to control the snow could cut the length of these evacuations, but this would require the on-site presence of a person skilled in these techniques.

Jamieson recommends installing metal barriers and snow fences to decrease the risk of loss of life and property to future snowslides. Such installation would cost approximately $2 million.

Hétu and Dubé also recommended erecting snow fences as a precaution in 1995, but the Kativik School Board never carried out this recommendation.

Hétu testified this week that because he didn't follow up on the report, he was not aware that the school board hadn't erected the snow fences until he arrived in Kangirqsualujjuaq two days after the avalanche.

Reinforcing the school gymnasium or constructing a 35-metre tall cement wedge to protect the Satuumavik School from future avalanches were two other solutions Jamieson brought up at the inquest.

These proposals are unlikely to be adopted because plans are already underway to build a new school some distance away from the hill.

Jamieson also told the inquest he is recommending the provincial government adopt a three-step procedure to assess future risk of avalanches risks in Kangiqsualujjuaq and in other Nunavik villages.

A system of local monitoring should also be put in place, he said.

"We recommend that a group of Kangiqsualujjuaq residents be trained to observe weather, snow and avalanche conditions," Jamieson said.